Turkiye’s New Medium-Term Program 2027-2029: Ambitious Targets Face Macro Reality
Turkiye's Medium-Term Program for 2027-2029 was announced on September 6. Despite GDP growth being targeted at 3.3% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, we think these remain optimistic projections given the monetary tightening and fiscal constraints in place. We believe the government’s revised inflation trajectory expecting headline inflation to drop to 28.4% in 2026 and 21.0% in 2027 will be challenging to achieve due to sticky prices and adverse global developments.
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Analyst / Author Declaration: I, Volkan Sezgin, Independent Analyst and Researcher, declare that the views and conclusions expressed in this publication reflect my professional judgment at the time of publication and are presented in good faith. The analysis has been prepared independently and without improper influence or inducement. Where applicable, material conflicts of interest are disclosed. I observe applicable professional and internal compliance standards concerning confidentiality, independence and the responsible use of information.